Subject: Myanmar Coup Updates for October 22
Tatmadaw orders "annihilation" of armed opposition amid on-going violence in northwest; USDP spokesman expresses concerns about military tactics; junta rejects ASEAN exclusion; US delegation raises junta access to finance, cross-border aid on trip to the region; HFAC passes BURMA Act; 7 Rohingya killed in likely ARSA attack on madrasa; Rohingya facing pressure to relocate to Bhasan Char
- Tatmadaw ordered to "annihilate" armed opposition: The Irrawaddy reports that Vice Senior General Soe Win ordered the annihilation of armed resistance forces and further threatened "severe punishment" to villagers that do not obey orders prohibiting villagers to have contact with defense forces. The orders, supposedly issued in the last week, come amid anticipation of a sweeping operation targeting Myanmar's northwest. The northwest corridor, which includes Chin State and Magwe and Sagaing Regions, is viewed as crucial for both the military and the opposition, as indicated by Tatmadaw plans for a massive operation in the area and hopes by resistance forces that parts of the northwest could become a "liberated area." While one military convoy of 50 vehicles entered the Chin State capital Hakkha, another convoy traveling from Hakha to Falam has destroyed dozens of homes and several churches in the last week; there are also reports that, after being based in Yangon for the last several months, the notorious Light Infantry Division 77 will redeploy to the northwest. Chin resistance forces blew up a bridge in a bid to prevent troops from reaching Thantlang and Camp Victoria, headquarters of the Chin National Army. The Tatmadaw also reportedly destroyed two PDF bases in Ayadaw and also burned down homes in the township (Sagaing), while a joint Kachin Independence Army-PDF attack purportedly killed 30 Tatmadaw soldiers, two police were killed in Monywa, and an explosive device killed two in Magwe.
- Communication breakdown:With internet cut in two dozen townships in the area and phone lines also cut in several townships, the Gangaw PDF is threatening to destroy all telecommunication towers in the township if the internet is not restored within three days.
- Rewards offered to defectors in Bago:Echoing the rewards offered to defecting soldiers in Chin State, defense forces in Taungoo (Bago) are offering a reward to defectors of 3 million kyat (about $1,500 depending on the exchange rate).
- Mitigating humanitarian disaster: A new report from Refugees International outlines the growing humanitarian disaster within Myanmar that is likely to again spill across its borders. Refugees International calls for Myanmar's neighbors to grant refuge to those fleeing as well as to allow aid to refugees and across the border into Myanmar, while urging donors to provide assistance to those in need, to step up pressure on the Tatmadaw, and to contribute to durable solutions by increasing third country resettlement for refugees.
- Fighting in Kachin, Kayah: The Tatmadaw and Kachin Independence Army clashed in several townships in Kachin, including in Tanai and Momauk, leaving some 10 Tatmadaw soldiers dead while the Karenni Army and Karenni National Defense Forces claimed to kill 20 soldiers in Hpruso (Kayah)
- USDP spokesman frets about instability: In an interview with BBC, military-proxy party USDP spokesman Nandar Hla Myint expressed concerns about instability in Myanmar, offering surprisingly candid (but nonetheless veiled) criticism of the Tatmadaw's heavy-handed tactics.
- At least 110 prisoners rearrested: Although it cannot definitely say how many prisoners were released in the Tatmadaw's Thadingyut amnesty, the Assistance Association for Political Prisoners said at least 110 prisoners had been rearrested, including NLD members and others; the amnesty appears to apply only to those charged with incitement under 505a of the Penal Code (a new penalty added after the coup), while those facing other charges remained behind bars.
- International response
- Junta rejects ASEAN exclusion, Malaysia calls for review of non-interference: After initialling indicating that it would send a Ministry of Foreign Affairs official to next week's ASEAN Summit, the junta is now rejecting Min Aung Hlaing's exclusion from the Summit on the grounds that the decision was not taken in conformity with the ASEAN Charter, an argument unlikely to sway an increasingly frustrated ASEAN (albeit an ASEAN mostly interested in protecting its own reputation rather than influencing events in Myanmar). At the other end of the spectrum Malaysia's Foreign Minister - going well beyond what other ASEAN members are likely to accept, particularly once Cambodia takes over the chair - called for a reexamination of ASEAN's heretofore sacred principle of non-interference.
- US delegation on border assistance, Tatmadaw finances, NUG: State Department Counselor Derek Chollet, leading a delegation to Southeast Asia which concludes Friday, said that US policy towards Myanmar is at an "inflection point". While Chollet sought to reinforce ASEAN centrality, he also noted the significant financial leverage that Singapore has over Myanmar, with Singaporean authorities saying they are taking steps to mitigate risks of exposure to firms operating in Myanmar. Chollet also raised humanitarian assistance in border areas with Thailand; a spokesman for Thailand's Ministry of Foreign Affairs said they would explore the "feasibility of Thai-U.S. cooperation to provide people in Myanmar with humanitarian assistance – possibly handled via the Thai-Myanmar border" while the Ministry also held a multi-stakeholder meeting on aid to Myanmar's people. Separately, Chollet said the US is "deeply committed to engaging" the NUG as US Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman met with Myanmar's NUG-supporting Ambassador the UN.
- UN Special Envoy calls for targeted sanctions: Noting that Myanmar has spiraled into civil war and that the Tatmadaw has shown no interest in dialogue, outgoing UN Special Envoy to Myanmar Christine Shcraner Burgener called for targeted sanctions to increase pressure on the Tatmadaw.
- HFAC passes BURMA Act: The House Foreign Affairs Committee passed the BURMA Act on Thursday.
- Violence permeates Rohingya camps, FM says it should "shoot if necessary": At least seven Rohingya were killed and as many as 20 injured, likely by ARSA, against a madrasa sympathetic to the Arakan Rohingya Society for Peace and Human Rights whose leader, Mohibullah, was assassinated three weeks ago. Gruesome photos and videos are circulating widely on social media. The attack comes despite an increased security presence in the camps in the wake of the assassination and underscore just how unsafe the camps have become. Unlikely to help is the Bangladesh Foreign Minister's suggestion that security agencies "shoot if necessary" to stop the drug and weapons trafficking groups he thinks are responsible and that the head of the Armed Police Battalion continues to deny ARSA's existence in the camps and claims "there is no crime in the camps" at night (while also saying that undertaking police operations at night is "risky").
- Pressure mounts for Bhasan Char relocation: Rohingya are facing pressure to relocate to Bhasan Char, with majhis reportedly instructed to identify 20 families for relocation. The pressure comes less than two weeks after UNHCR and Bangladesh agreed to a MoU for Bhasan Char in which Bangladesh commits to voluntary relocation.
Steve Ross
Senior Advisor and Program Director
Richardson Center for Global Engagement
